{"id":1728,"date":"2013-05-18T12:28:44","date_gmt":"2013-05-18T19:28:44","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/lexiconic.net\/wheatfromthechaff\/?p=1728"},"modified":"2017-04-03T19:05:02","modified_gmt":"2017-04-04T02:05:02","slug":"the-economy-stupid","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/lexiconic.net\/wheatfromthechaff\/archives\/1728","title":{"rendered":"It&#8217;s the economy, stupid"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"wp_fb_like_button\" style=\"margin:5px 0;float:none;height:30px;\"><script src=\"http:\/\/connect.facebook.net\/en_US\/all.js#xfbml=1\"><\/script><fb:like href=\"http:\/\/lexiconic.net\/wheatfromthechaff\/archives\/1728\" send=\"false\" layout=\"standard\" width=\"450\" show_faces=\"false\" font=\"arial\" action=\"recommend\" colorscheme=\"light\"><\/fb:like><\/div><blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\"><p>It&#8217;s the economy, stupid. Although the <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/search\/%23bcliberals\">#bcliberals<\/a> are terrible economic managers, <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/search\/%23bcndp\">#bcndp<\/a> silence on economy concedes issue to opponents.<\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Colin W. (@grapemanca) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/grapemanca\/status\/334528367443443712\">May 15, 2013<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script charset=\"utf-8\" type=\"text\/javascript\" src=\"\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" async=\"\"><\/script>Probably the only positive outcome after the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.cbc.ca\/news\/canada\/british-columbia\/story\/2013\/05\/15\/f-bc-election-analysis.html\" target=\"_blank\">stunning BC election of May 14<\/a> was a petty sense of \u201cI told you so\u201d. Though I had predicted (like most people) a victory for the NDP, I had become disenchanted with the New Democrats\u2019 performance because it was hard to distinguish the 2013 election from the failed election campaigns of 2001, 2005 and 2009. The central problem persisted: almost complete silence on economic policy.<\/p>\n<p>I have argued for years that silence on this core issue concedes the topic to the Liberals, and makes the latter the <em>de facto<\/em> \u201cparty of the economy\u201d (and thus the party of \u201cprosperity\u201d, \u201cgrowth\u201d and \u201cjobs\u201d). And without this issue, the NDP will probably never win. For example, in one of my <a href=\"http:\/\/lexiconic.net\/wheatfromthechaff\/archives\/106\" target=\"_blank\">first ever blog posts<\/a> back in April 2009, I discussed the paucity of policy on economic issues by the provincial NDP, and how Carole James\u2019s stubborn refusal to discuss the economy and the NDP\u2019s economic record in the 1990\u2019s\u00a0 would lead to failure in the upcoming 2009 election.<\/p>\n<p>And now we come to another electoral failure, albeit one where the outcome was supposed to be different. There is no doubt that the NDP\u2019s failure resulted from a constellation of forces. On an electoral level, it\u2019s difficult to say with certainty if <a href=\"http:\/\/www.vancouversun.com\/news\/bc-election\/Adrian+would+premier+Green+supporters+voted+with+graphic\/8388911\/story.html\" target=\"_blank\">the Green vote prevented an NDP victory<\/a>, but it was pretty clear that both NDP and Green voters viewed the other party <a href=\"http:\/\/www.cbc.ca\/news2\/canada\/bcvotes2013\/features\/vote-solidity\/\" target=\"_blank\">as their second choice in the election<\/a>.\u00a0 Tactically, the NDP realized only at the end that <a href=\"http:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/commentary\/the-only-sure-election-winner-negative-campaigning\/article11973183\/\" target=\"_blank\">negative campaigning works<\/a>. In the last few days, NDP advertising finally began to accentuate many of the Liberals\u2019 failings, but by then it was too late.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.raesidecartoon.com\/\" target=\"_blank\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone\" style=\"background-image: none; padding-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; margin-left: auto; display: block; padding-right: 0px; margin-right: auto; border: 0px;\" title=\"gonegative\" src=\"http:\/\/lexiconic.net\/wheatfromthechaff\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/05\/gonegative1.gif\" alt=\"gonegative\" width=\"517\" height=\"418\" border=\"0\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Adrian Dix and his campaign team also tried to run a \u201clight\u201d campaign \u2013 a campaign long on optimism and short on commitments to difficult issues. And one of Dix\u2019s rare policy pronouncements, his <a href=\"http:\/\/www.vancouversun.com\/news\/bc-election\/Adrian+pipeline+flip+flop+factor+election+outcome+says\/8403531\/story.html\" target=\"_blank\">flip-flop on the southern Kinder Morgan pipeline<\/a>, certainly didn\u2019t help.<\/p>\n<p>Nevertheless, in my opinion, all of this is prologue. The heart of NDP electoral failure, as I\u2019ve stated above, is their relative silence on economic policy. All other issues are secondary or derive from the NDP economic vacuum. As James Carville insisted back in the early 90\u2019s, it\u2019s \u201cthe economy, stupid\u201d.<sup>1<\/sup> For decades, most British Columbians made\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/ca.news.yahoo.com\/blogs\/canada-politics\/health-care-education-rural-issues-back-seat-b-211609139.html\" target=\"_blank\">the economy their number one concern<\/a>. Despite the failure of pollsters to accurately predict the May election, the preoccupation with the economy remained clear and consistent. And according to Angus Reid, the economy was the number one issue heading into election night.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.angus-reid.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/05\/2013.05.11_Politics_BC.pdf\" target=\"_blank\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"background-image: none; float: none; padding-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; margin-left: auto; display: block; padding-right: 0px; margin-right: auto; border: 0px;\" title=\"BKA5-ffCIAEETI6.jpg large\" src=\"http:\/\/lexiconic.net\/wheatfromthechaff\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/05\/BKA5-ffCIAEETI6.jpg-large.jpg\" alt=\"BKA5-ffCIAEETI6.jpg large\" width=\"514\" height=\"435\" border=\"0\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Yet the NDP said little about the dismal Liberal record on the economy. They could have railed against Christy Clark\u2019s BC Jobs Plan that\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.cbc.ca\/news\/canada\/british-columbia\/story\/2013\/04\/05\/bc-unemployment-stats-can.html\" target=\"_blank\">failed<\/a> to ignite private sector employment, and continues to saddle us with the worst unemployment record in western Canada. The Liberals also gave us an\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/thecanadian.org\/item\/1868-bc-may-be-headed-for-its-own-fiscal-cliff-erik-andersen\" target=\"_blank\">enormous debt<\/a>\u00a0load. As noted by <a href=\"http:\/\/thecanadian.org\/item\/2089-its-the-economy-stupid-ndp-dix-loses-bc-election-liberal-christy-clark\" target=\"_blank\">Damien Gillis<\/a>,<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>the Liberals have raised our real provincial debt<em> <strong>from $34 Billion to $171 Billion since they came to power.<\/strong><\/em> The NDP, by contrast, raised it by $17 Billion over a similar period<strong>. <\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Much of this debt is in the form of &#8220;contractual obligations&#8221; to private power producers who will enjoy generous power contracts with the province for decades to come. Again, on this issue, the NDP was largely silent.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/thecanadian.org\/item\/2045-bc-liberal-legacy-a-huge-debt-burden\" target=\"_blank\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"background-image: none; float: none; padding-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; margin-left: auto; display: block; padding-right: 0px; margin-right: auto; border: 0px;\" title=\"BC debt and contractual obligations\" src=\"http:\/\/lexiconic.net\/wheatfromthechaff\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/05\/BC-debt-and-contractual-obligations.jpg\" alt=\"BC debt and contractual obligations\" width=\"517\" height=\"305\" border=\"0\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Where was the sustained attack on the tragic effects of the Liberals\u2019 tax-cutting, trickle-down agenda? Inequality in this province remains a blight on our society and economy, but it was merely a tag line in a few advertisements near the end of the campaign:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.cbc.ca\/bc\/news\/bc-120130-bcstats-infoline-income-gap.pdf\" target=\"_blank\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"background-image: none; float: none; padding-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; margin-left: auto; display: block; padding-right: 0px; margin-right: auto; border: 0px;\" title=\"ScreenHunter_08 May. 18 14.01\" src=\"http:\/\/lexiconic.net\/wheatfromthechaff\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/05\/ScreenHunter_08-May.-18-14.01.jpg\" alt=\"ScreenHunter_08 May. 18 14.01\" width=\"480\" height=\"635\" border=\"0\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>And tax cuts have not led to an increase in productivity as its proponents have promised. As the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bccheckup.com\/pdfs\/bccheckup_2010_provincial.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">Institute of Chartered Accountants of BC<\/a> noted in 2010, despite<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>the infusion of investment and human capital in the past five years, BC\u2019s labour force productivity stagnated. All of Canada suffers from a labour productivity gap with the US, but BC\u2019s productivity has remained below the national average for many years. To a large degree, poor productivity explains the lower real wage in BC\u2026<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Arguments regarding productivity and competitiveness would have damaged the Liberals on their &#8220;home turf&#8221;, but not a word was heard from their opponents.<\/p>\n<p>Furthermore, the NDP could have hammered the Liberals over their appalling record on child poverty, but the NDP only referred to it briefly in a few advertisements:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.firstcallbc.org\/pdfs\/CurrentIssues\/2013%20Prov%20Budget%20Submission%20First%20Call.pdf\" target=\"_blank\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"background-image: none; float: none; padding-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; margin-left: auto; display: block; padding-right: 0px; margin-right: auto; border: 0px;\" title=\"ScreenHunter_11 May. 18 14.02\" src=\"http:\/\/lexiconic.net\/wheatfromthechaff\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/05\/ScreenHunter_11-May.-18-14.02.jpg\" alt=\"ScreenHunter_11 May. 18 14.02\" width=\"520\" height=\"337\" border=\"0\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Finally, how about the Liberals\u2019 poor record on investing in education in BC? Aside from &#8220;skills training&#8221;, the NDP ignored the issue of <a href=\"http:\/\/www.southdeltaleader.com\/opinion\/204581421.html?\" target=\"_blank\">education underfunding<\/a> and the serious consequences it has engendered.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.statcan.gc.ca\/pub\/81-595-m\/81-595-m2013099-eng.pdf\" target=\"_blank\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"background-image: none; float: none; padding-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; margin-left: auto; display: block; padding-right: 0px; margin-right: auto; border: 0px;\" title=\"ScreenHunter_13 May. 18 15.25\" src=\"http:\/\/lexiconic.net\/wheatfromthechaff\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/05\/ScreenHunter_13-May.-18-15.25.jpg\" alt=\"ScreenHunter_13 May. 18 15.25\" width=\"520\" height=\"322\" border=\"0\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.statcan.gc.ca\/pub\/81-595-m\/81-595-m2013099-eng.pdf\" target=\"_blank\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"background-image: none; float: none; padding-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; margin-left: auto; display: block; padding-right: 0px; margin-right: auto; border: 0px;\" title=\"ScreenHunter_12 May. 18 15.24\" src=\"http:\/\/lexiconic.net\/wheatfromthechaff\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/05\/ScreenHunter_12-May.-18-15.24.jpg\" alt=\"ScreenHunter_12 May. 18 15.24\" width=\"520\" height=\"314\" border=\"0\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p>Without a critique of BC Liberal economic policy, the NDP concedes the issue to the BC Liberals. Yet the NDP simply can\u2019t afford to surrender this territory. It is the only real place to grow their support beyond the traditional base.\u00a0 Put another way, without a split in the right-wing vote, they need to appeal to new voters who (as we\u2019ve seen above) care deeply about economic performance. As I\u2019ve <a href=\"http:\/\/lexiconic.net\/wheatfromthechaff\/archives\/106\" target=\"_blank\">noted before<\/a>, the right-wing coalition normally polls about 5-10% above the NDP, so if anyone needs to blaze new paths, it\u2019s the NDP, not the Liberals. [To put things in perspective, the 2013 NDP earned just 1.2% less of the popular vote than in their big win of 1991.] This means tackling the economy and taking away, or at least minimizing, the major perceived strength of the \u201cparty of the economy\u201d. As Gillis has <a href=\"http:\/\/thecanadian.org\/item\/2089-its-the-economy-stupid-ndp-dix-loses-bc-election-liberal-christy-clark\" target=\"_blank\">argued<\/a>,\u00a0echoing Karl Rove, \u201cYou don&#8217;t attack your opponent&#8217;s weakness; you attack their greatest strength, because if you take that leg out from under them, they have nothing left to stand on.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The NDP has also failed to articulate any coherent alternative vision for a growing, prosperous economy. A critique may be necessary, but it\u2019s not sufficient. In the absence of pipelines, for example, what <em>is<\/em> the NDP approach to developing the economy? Let\u2019s return to Damien Gillis; he talks about a positive and sustainable way of growing the economy:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>By contrast, [the NDP] could have offered a bold vision of a stronger, greener economic future for BC &#8211; one built on innovation, clean technology, public transit, rebuilding local, value-added manufacturing, supporting our vital film industry and creative sectors, harnessing the true potential of &#8220;Super, Natural BC&#8221;&#8230; Alas, they did some of these things, but in piecemeal fashion &#8211; detached from any central narrative. And they failed to <em>distinguish <\/em>clearly their own record and vision from those of their opponents.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>I would add to this a need to re-purpose the economy and address the central issue of inequality. <a href=\"http:\/\/lexiconic.net\/wheatfromthechaff\/archives\/383\" target=\"_blank\">Robert Reich<\/a> and others have warned that inequality is not only morally offensive, but it\u2019s devastating for the economy, too. Given the <a href=\"http:\/\/data.worldbank.org\/indicator\/NE.CON.PETC.ZS\" target=\"_blank\">role of consumer spending<\/a> in the economies of Canada and the United States, squeezing the poor and middle classes can only damage the economic system \u2013 rich included. With this in mind, I have argued <a href=\"http:\/\/lexiconic.net\/wheatfromthechaff\/archives\/1404\" target=\"_blank\">in an earlier post<\/a> that a progressive economic agenda should include\u00a0 a commitment co-operative capitalism. In brief, supporting an economic system of economic competition within a framework of broader ownership reduces inequality and labour strife and, from that, stabilizes and sustains the economy.<\/p>\n<p>In the end, what I want is a New Democratic Party that offers something to look forward to. It\u2019s not enough to conserve social programs and the environment; those alone strike an ironically conservative tone. What people want is to know is that they and their families will be economically secure and better off in the future. The NDP has the tools to do this, but it will need to find the courage to capture ground it has all too easily yielded.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: xx-small;\"><sup>1<\/sup> Stephanopoulos, George. <i>All too human: a political education<\/i>. Boston: Little, Brown, 1999. Print. (p. 88)<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>It&#8217;s the economy, stupid. Although the #bcliberals are terrible economic managers, #bcndp silence on economy concedes issue to opponents. \u2014 Colin W. (@grapemanca) May 15, 2013 Probably the only positive outcome after the stunning BC election of May 14 was a petty sense of \u201cI told you so\u201d. Though I had predicted (like most people) [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5,7,8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1728","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-bc-politics","category-canadian-politics","category-economic-issues"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/lexiconic.net\/wheatfromthechaff\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1728","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/lexiconic.net\/wheatfromthechaff\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/lexiconic.net\/wheatfromthechaff\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/lexiconic.net\/wheatfromthechaff\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/lexiconic.net\/wheatfromthechaff\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1728"}],"version-history":[{"count":29,"href":"http:\/\/lexiconic.net\/wheatfromthechaff\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1728\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2371,"href":"http:\/\/lexiconic.net\/wheatfromthechaff\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1728\/revisions\/2371"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/lexiconic.net\/wheatfromthechaff\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1728"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/lexiconic.net\/wheatfromthechaff\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1728"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/lexiconic.net\/wheatfromthechaff\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1728"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}